| Setting | Regimen | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | suboptimal, relapse rate is twice that of the control regimen |
| 3,4 | minimal, relapse rate is the same as the control regimen | |
| 5 | desirable, relapse rate is half that of the control regimen | |
| 2 | 2-5 | all are desirable, relapse rate is half that of the control regimen |
| 3 | 2-5 | all are minimal, relapse rate is the same as the control regimen |
Visualization of conditions
For the sake of this simulation study, we will consider dropping regimens that fail to meet the following criteria:
| Log10(TTP) Characteristics | P(better than control) > 0.8 and P(in top 2) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.9 | P(better than control) > 0.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slopes are evenly distributed | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| 20% | 0.03 | 0.94 | 0.88 | 0.77 |
| 30% | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| 40% | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 35% | 0.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| 37% | 0.15 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 39% | 0.22 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 41% | 0.36 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high and low | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| -10% | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| 35% | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| 40% | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Log10(TTP) Characteristics | P(better than control) > 0.8 and P(in top 2) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.9 | P(better than control) > 0.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slopes are evenly distributed | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| 20% | 0.02 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 |
| 30% | 0.66 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| 40% | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 35% | 0.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 37% | 0.11 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 39% | 0.24 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 41% | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high and low | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| -10% | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| 35% | 0.99 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Log10(TTP) Characteristics | P(better than control) > 0.8 and P(in top 2) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.9 | P(better than control) > 0.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slopes are evenly distributed | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.78 | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| 20% | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.95 |
| 60% | 0.73 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 35% | 0.04 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 37% | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 39% | 0.24 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 41% | 0.45 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high and low | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| -10% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.53 |
| 35% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Log10(TTP) Characteristics | P(better than control) > 0.8 and P(in top 2) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.8 | P(better than control) > 0.9 | P(better than control) > 0.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slopes are evenly distributed | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.82 | 0.72 | 0.59 |
| 20% | 0.01 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 30% | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 35% | 0.03 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 37% | 0.09 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 39% | 0.26 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 41% | 0.47 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Slopes are clustered high and low | ||||
| ref | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| -10% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 10% | 0.00 | 0.86 | 0.77 | 0.60 |
| 35% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40% | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control regimen (relapse rate = 5%) | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sub-optimal regimen (relapse rate = 10%) | ||||
| 30 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 0.25 |
| 60 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.57 |
| 80 | 2 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| Minimal regimen (relapse rate = 5%) | ||||
| 30 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.79 | 0.47 | 0.21 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.90 | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.91 | 0.68 | 0.43 |
| Desirable regimen (relapse rate = 2.5%) | ||||
| 30 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.52 | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| 80 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.34 | 0.13 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control regimen (relapse rate = 10%) | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sub-optimal regimen (relapse rate = 20%) | ||||
| 30 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.55 | 0.26 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.98 | 0.88 | 0.70 |
| 60 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| 80 | 2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Minimal regimen (relapse rate = 10%) | ||||
| 30 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.83 | 0.52 | 0.24 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.85 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.62 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.81 | 0.47 | 0.21 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.58 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| Desirable regimen (relapse rate = 5%) | ||||
| 30 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.11 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.57 | 0.23 | 0.05 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| 80 | 5 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.44 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control regimen (relapse rate = 3%) | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sub-optimal regimen (relapse rate = 6%) | ||||
| 30 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.28 | 0.08 |
| 60 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| 80 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| Minimal regimen (relapse rate = 3%) | ||||
| 30 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.41 | 0.16 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| Desirable regimen (relapse rate = 1.5%) | ||||
| 30 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| 80 | 5 | 0.53 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nk = 30 | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.21 | 0.06 |
| 30 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.23 | 0.06 |
| 30 | 5 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| nk = 40 | ||||
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.79 | 0.45 | 0.19 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 0.25 |
| nk = 60 | ||||
| 60 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.63 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.57 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| nk = 80 | ||||
| 80 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 2 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| 80 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nk = 30 | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.52 | 0.23 |
| 30 | 3 | 0.87 | 0.59 | 0.30 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 0.28 |
| 30 | 5 | 0.91 | 0.69 | 0.41 |
| nk = 40 | ||||
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.97 | 0.86 | 0.68 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.69 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.97 | 0.84 | 0.62 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.98 | 0.88 | 0.68 |
| nk = 60 | ||||
| 60 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| 60 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| 60 | 4 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| 60 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| nk = 80 | ||||
| 80 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 2 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 4 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| 80 | 5 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nk = 30 | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 30 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| 30 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| nk = 40 | ||||
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.27 | 0.08 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.66 | 0.27 | 0.09 |
| nk = 60 | ||||
| 60 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.85 | 0.57 | 0.29 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.84 | 0.54 | 0.25 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| nk = 80 | ||||
| 80 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.54 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.94 | 0.78 | 0.54 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| 80 | 5 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.57 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nk = 30 | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| 30 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 30 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| nk = 40 | ||||
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.21 | 0.05 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| nk = 60 | ||||
| 60 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.79 | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.77 | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| nk = 80 | ||||
| 80 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 2 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.45 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.91 | 0.68 | 0.42 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.90 | 0.68 | 0.43 |
| 80 | 5 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.44 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nk = 30 | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| 30 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| 30 | 5 | 0.69 | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| nk = 40 | ||||
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 0.24 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.81 | 0.47 | 0.19 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 0.25 |
| nk = 60 | ||||
| 60 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.58 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.96 | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 0.57 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| nk = 80 | ||||
| 80 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 2 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| 80 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| nk | regimen | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nk = 30 | ||||
| 30 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 30 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 30 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| nk = 40 | ||||
| 40 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.28 | 0.08 |
| 40 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 5 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| nk = 60 | ||||
| 60 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 2 | 0.83 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| 60 | 3 | 0.61 | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| 60 | 4 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| 60 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| nk = 80 | ||||
| 80 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 2 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| 80 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.41 | 0.16 |
| 80 | 4 | 0.76 | 0.41 | 0.17 |
| 80 | 5 | 0.53 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| nk | P(confidence < 0.8, >= 1 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8, >= 2 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8, >= 3 relapse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| 40 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| 60 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| 80 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 20%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 30%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| High (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 37%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 39%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 41%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| High-low (TTP) | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = -10%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.40 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| 40 | 0.74 | 0.34 | 0.13 |
| 60 | 0.77 | 0.46 | 0.22 |
| 80 | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.60 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| 60 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| 80 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| nk | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 1 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 2 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 3 relapse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.74 | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| 40 | 0.88 | 0.68 | 0.50 |
| 60 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 20%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.43 | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| 40 | 0.59 | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| 60 | 0.96 | 0.82 | 0.55 |
| 80 | 0.98 | 0.91 | 0.77 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 30%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 0.54 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| 60 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.55 |
| 80 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.78 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.01 |
| 60 | 0.86 | 0.48 | 0.14 |
| 80 | 0.92 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| High (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.63 | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| 40 | 0.90 | 0.68 | 0.39 |
| 60 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.86 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 37%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.41 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 0.73 | 0.37 | 0.12 |
| 60 | 0.95 | 0.83 | 0.56 |
| 80 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 0.79 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 39%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.43 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 0.70 | 0.33 | 0.08 |
| 60 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 0.54 |
| 80 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.81 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 41%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| 60 | 0.84 | 0.49 | 0.13 |
| 80 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 0.40 |
| High-low (TTP) | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = -10%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.72 | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| 40 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| 60 | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| 80 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.53 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| 40 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.08 |
| 60 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 0.58 |
| 80 | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.78 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| 40 | 0.52 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| 60 | 0.84 | 0.50 | 0.16 |
| 80 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| nk | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 1 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 2 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 3 relapse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 20%) | |||
| 30 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 20%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.63 | 0.28 | 0.12 |
| 60 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 30%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.65 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| 60 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.87 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| 60 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.51 |
| High (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 20%) | |||
| 30 | 0.86 | 0.59 | 0.32 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 37%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.71 | 0.34 | 0.10 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.88 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 39%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.66 | 0.30 | 0.09 |
| 60 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.89 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 41%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| 60 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.50 |
| High-low (TTP) | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = -10%, relapse rate = 20%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.85 | 0.63 | 0.45 |
| 60 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 10%) | |||
| 30 | 0.74 | 0.40 | 0.12 |
| 60 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.87 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.62 | 0.19 | 0.02 |
| 60 | 0.95 | 0.78 | 0.55 |
| nk | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 1 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 2 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 3 relapse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 6%) | |||
| 30 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| 60 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.71 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 20%, relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 0.30 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| 60 | 0.88 | 0.64 | 0.28 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 30%, relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.87 | 0.55 | 0.21 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.73 | 0.24 | 0.05 |
| High (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 6%) | |||
| 30 | 0.44 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| 60 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.60 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 37%, relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.87 | 0.58 | 0.27 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 39%, relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 41%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.76 | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| High-low (TTP) | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: suboptimal (TTP slope = -10%, relapse rate = 6%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 2: minimal (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 0.61 | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| 60 | 0.92 | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| Regimen 3: minimal (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| 60 | 0.88 | 0.55 | 0.23 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.26 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| 60 | 0.75 | 0.22 | 0.02 |
| nk | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 1 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 2 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 3 relapse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even (TTP). All desirable relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.61 | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| 40 | 0.77 | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| 60 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.71 |
| 80 | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| Regimen 2: (TTP slope = 20%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.46 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| 40 | 0.66 | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| 60 | 0.88 | 0.64 | 0.28 |
| 80 | 0.95 | 0.76 | 0.48 |
| Regimen 3: (TTP slope = 30%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.47 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| 40 | 0.62 | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| 60 | 0.87 | 0.55 | 0.21 |
| 80 | 0.93 | 0.77 | 0.50 |
| Regimen 4: (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| 40 | 0.67 | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| 60 | 0.73 | 0.24 | 0.05 |
| 80 | 0.86 | 0.52 | 0.19 |
| High (TTP). All desirable relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.46 | 0.10 | 0.01 |
| 40 | 0.78 | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| 60 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.60 |
| 80 | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| Regimen 2: (TTP slope = 37%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.53 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| 40 | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.16 |
| 60 | 0.87 | 0.58 | 0.27 |
| 80 | 0.95 | 0.79 | 0.51 |
| Regimen 3: (TTP slope = 39%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| 40 | 0.75 | 0.39 | 0.14 |
| 60 | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| 80 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.54 |
| Regimen 4: (TTP slope = 41%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.59 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| 40 | 0.80 | 0.46 | 0.16 |
| 60 | 0.76 | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| 80 | 0.84 | 0.45 | 0.14 |
| High-low (TTP). All desirable relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 3%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: (TTP slope = -10%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| 40 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| 60 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 80 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 2: (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| 40 | 0.82 | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| 60 | 0.92 | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| 80 | 0.95 | 0.80 | 0.56 |
| Regimen 3: (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.58 | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| 40 | 0.77 | 0.39 | 0.13 |
| 60 | 0.88 | 0.55 | 0.23 |
| 80 | 0.94 | 0.75 | 0.49 |
| Regimen 4: (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 1.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.67 | 0.28 | 0.06 |
| 40 | 0.79 | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| 60 | 0.75 | 0.22 | 0.02 |
| 80 | 0.84 | 0.52 | 0.15 |
| nk | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 1 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 2 relapse) | P(confidence < 0.8 OR >= 3 relapse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Even (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: desirable (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| Regimen 2: desirable (TTP slope = 20%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.62 | 0.30 | 0.12 |
| Regimen 3: desirable (TTP slope = 30%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.59 | 0.23 | 0.04 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.70 | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| High (TTP). Mixed relapse rates. | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: desirable (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.64 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| Regimen 2: desirable (TTP slope = 37%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.68 | 0.31 | 0.10 |
| Regimen 3: desirable (TTP slope = 39%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.66 | 0.27 | 0.07 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 41%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.75 | 0.40 | 0.13 |
| High-low (TTP) | |||
| Control (relapse rate = 5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Regimen 1: desirable (TTP slope = -10%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Regimen 2: desirable (TTP slope = 10%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.86 | 0.62 | 0.45 |
| Regimen 3: desirable (TTP slope = 35%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.77 | 0.38 | 0.15 |
| Regimen 4: desirable (TTP slope = 40%, relapse rate = 2.5%) | |||
| 30 | 0.81 | 0.49 | 0.19 |
| regimen | No. patients | No. relapses | Median FU (weeks) | Min FU (weeks) | Max FU (weeks) | Median percent change in TTP slope | CI.l on percent change in TTP slope | CI.u on percent change in TTP slope | Confidence regimen has steeper slope than control | Confidence regimen is best | Confidence regimen is one of top two best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36 | 1 | 20.14 | 13.29 | 28.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 2 | 30 | 1 | 19.50 | 13.00 | 29.86 | 0.05 | -0.08 | 0.21 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 3 | 31 | 3 | 22.86 | 15.86 | 29.86 | 0.08 | -0.06 | 0.23 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| 4 | 31 | 2 | 20.86 | 13.29 | 29.86 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.99 |
| 5 | 34 | 1 | 21.86 | 13.00 | 30.00 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.76 | 1.00 |
| regimen | No. patients | No. relapses | Median FU (weeks) | Min FU (weeks) | Max FU (weeks) | Median percent change in TTP slope | CI.l on percent change in TTP slope | CI.u on percent change in TTP slope | Confidence regimen has steeper slope than control | Confidence regimen is best | Confidence regimen is one of top two best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60 | 1 | 28.36 | 13.00 | 41.43 | 0.00 | 0 | ||||
| 2 | 60 | 2 | 25.36 | 13.14 | 42.43 | 0.09 | -0.01 | 0.22 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 3 | 60 | 4 | 28.86 | 13.43 | 42.43 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 4 | 60 | 3 | 26.07 | 13.14 | 42.43 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.48 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1 |
| 5 | 60 | 1 | 28.21 | 13.43 | 42.57 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1 |
## [1] 81.85714
| regimen | No. relapses |
|---|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 |
| Estimate | Est.Error | l-95% CI | u-95% CI | Rhat | Bulk_ESS | Tail_ESS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 0.850 | 0.015 | 0.821 | 0.879 | 1.001 | 3361.627 | 3334.667 |
| week | 0.087 | 0.005 | 0.078 | 0.096 | 1.001 | 2973.382 | 3317.836 |
| week:regimen2 | 0.005 | 0.006 | -0.007 | 0.017 | 1.000 | 3119.470 | 2969.695 |
| week:regimen3 | 0.007 | 0.006 | -0.005 | 0.019 | 1.000 | 2882.399 | 3290.040 |
| week:regimen4 | 0.025 | 0.007 | 0.012 | 0.038 | 1.001 | 3024.336 | 3016.201 |
| week:regimen5 | 0.030 | 0.007 | 0.017 | 0.043 | 1.001 | 2788.192 | 3243.151 |
How confident are we that regimen 4 is better than all other regimens?
| regimen | prop_best | bestarm |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.0000 | regimen1 |
| 2 | 0.0000 | regimen2 |
| 3 | 0.0000 | regimen3 |
| 4 | 0.2377 | regimen4 |
| 5 | 0.7622 | regimen5 |
How confident are we that our chosen subset contains the best regimen?
## perc.confidence subset.size
## 1 0.85800 1
## 2 0.99975 2
## 3 1.00000 3
## 4 1.00000 4
How certain can we be that the rate of change in log10(TTP) for any regimen is different from the rate of change for the control?
R.version
## _
## platform x86_64-apple-darwin17.0
## arch x86_64
## os darwin17.0
## system x86_64, darwin17.0
## status
## major 4
## minor 1.2
## year 2021
## month 11
## day 01
## svn rev 81115
## language R
## version.string R version 4.1.2 (2021-11-01)
## nickname Bird Hippie